By adamg on Wed., 11/6/2013 - 8:56 am
WBUR has posted precinct-by-precinct results on a map. The first thing that stands out is how overwhelmingly Walsh took Hyde Park - it proved his margin of victory.
But also interesting is how Washington Street - the one that runs through Roxbury, JP, Roslindale and West Roxbury - served as a boundary line between Walshville and Connolly Town. East of Washington Street, Walsh won big. West of Washington, it was mostly Connolly.
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No...
By Sally
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 1:02pm
I just grabbed those numbers somewhere. Where's our Nate Silver when we need him?
2005 and 2009 Mayoral Elections
By Stevil
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 5:58pm
had 95,000 and 110,000 turn out respectively (didn't see percentages) 38% is still not great - but 141,000 votes in a mayoral election is probably one of the best turnouts in recent memory by far no matter the percentage. And good for those that turned out. With a difference of 3500 votes, the whole election turned on a couple thousand people out of a population of over 600,000. In other words, about 1/3 of 1% could have turned the election meaning the mystery 19% that hadn't made up their mind as of last weekend probably broke for Walsh and put him over the top.
In my district the difference for City Council was only a few hundred votes - there are single buildings with a bigger population than that in this city which is why people should show up for local elections. You're pretty unlikely to sway a national election - but the no shows could easily sway a lot of local elections.
it's mostly people who don't intend on living there forever
By adnadadnoonadndnad
Thu, 11/07/2013 - 1:57pm
Owners vote in local elections, renters typically only vote in national/state elections. If you want to see higher turn-out in local elections, these neighborhoods need more owner-occupied housing.
West of Washington for Walsh
By anon
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 11:21am
Alliteration aside, I live in JP and west of Washington but felt Walsh ultimately is the better candidate. I hope that Walsh's strong ties to union life will actually help him not be a pushover for unions (I believe unions have both good and bad qualities, just as business owners and management). He will have to walk a fine line since he received so much support from unions.
I also sensed that Walsh does a better job of straddling the blue collar and white collar identities of Boston.
Walsh took a risk of a backlash by conservatives in Dorchester by voting against a constitutional amendment forbidding Gays from marrying. Having lived in Dorchester for several years I know first hand that for all the liberal residents of Dot there still are plenty who are hostile toward Gays and might have voted against Walsh for later elected positions. That took guts.
Will Walsh manage to connect the various sub-groups in the city? That depends on what sub-groups want to be active in city government. My sense of Walsh is the he wants to be a mayor for all of Boston but that does not mean that all of Boston wants to be a part of Boston.
All in all however I believe that this was a good race and we are the better for it.
East of Washington Connelly voter here.
By Sally
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 12:18pm
I know that I'm still just venting my disappointment but come on...the unions did not POUR money and manpower into this race so they'd get a mayor who would be tough on them. And the class issue flames were very deliberately stirred by the Walsh campaign. Making a big distinction between two Irish guys from Dorchester and Roslindale, one went to Newman and BC and earns six figures working for the state and the union, the other went to RL and Harvard and earns less, I believe, as a lawyer and city councillor...only Boston could come up with this nitpicking one toilet vs lace curtain sh*t.
Also from East of Washington Roslindale
By Michael Kerpan
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 12:31pm
Connolly's supporters (even if not Connolly himself) started floating the "union thug"/ "union patsy" meme pretty early on. Walsh's supporters' rejoinder (even if not Walsh himself) was not so much "Connolly is an attorney, nah, nah, nah!" as it was "why does Connolly talks so much about being a teacher and so little about being an attorney?" Had Connolly, from the first, presented a narrative that (reasonably convincingly) worked in his work as a lawyer, this rejoinder would not have stung him.
(Note -- I had several candidates I preferred to either Connolly or Walsh, but, hey, that's politics...).
I just disagree.
By Sally
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 12:58pm
It was very hard to ignore the flood of mail from the unions, especially the really nasty flyers and the very visible union presence in the Walsh campaign. I'm not remotely anti-union per se but feeling the heavy hand of that kind of massive political machinery in a local race was profoundly unsettling. Am I glad it wasn't Koch brothers money or casino money? Yes, but I still would have preferred to have these two candidates run fairly on their merits. If Connelly had been getting flocks of lawyers knocking on doors and making phone calls and funneling secret millions into his campaign, then I'd take your point but as it stands...well, it is what it is.
It wasn't Connolly's...
By Michael Kerpan
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 1:25pm
... "attorney support" that was/would have been problematic -- it was the money from groups that favor public school privatization (some of which did have Koch money behind them). School privatizers (profoundly anti-union) fought a proxy war with pro-union groups here. In this instance, the latter put in more money (though both sides poured in plenty of money and logistic support). It is always best not to be at the center of a proxy war.
Had Connolly not taken such a strong anti-teacher, anti-union line (supporting the idea of unilaterally making teachers work an hour a day more for no extra pay -- if they wouldn't "agree" to do so on their own), I suspect he would not have gotten so much outside money from school privatizers and Walsh would not have gotten so much money from unions. But, even with the unfortunate entry of national money sources, I think Bostonians should be proud (and pleased) that this municipal election season has been remarkably civil and constructive overall.
Who says teachers have to work an extra hour
By Stevil
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 1:43pm
The city is asking teachers to spend an extra hour in classrooms. The appropriate response for the union - is: OK, something has to give - what can we spend 180 hours less on annually - training requirements, PTA meetings, homework grading, less "volunteering" for after school tutoring (which should be less necessary if every school day is an hour longer) whatever. In theory that's what should happen.
Instead - it's "pay us more money" . If we insist on the same number of hours with different priorities - why should the teachers get paid more?
I think that's a reasonable middle ground that the city can afford.
If they do say pay us more - the budget is a zero sum game - where does that money come from? And if the non-union charters step up and say we'll get the job done for less money - why shouldn't they be allowed to do so? I'd like the BTU to tell us what should be cut so that we can pay them more.
teachers typically have one
By adnadadnoonadndnad
Thu, 11/07/2013 - 1:47pm
teachers typically have one class period of prep time a day - maybe 45 minutes. Do you actually think that teachers are able to do all their grading and lesson planning in that time? Teachers aren't going to get that extra hour for prep - they're going to have to teach - that means one hour less for grading/lesson planning that is UNPAID - and more class time that they have to prep for. And BTU is rightly saying either you pay teachers extra for this time, OR you hire more specials so the classroom teachers can use this time to do grading/lessons that they already do ON THEIR OWN TIME.
Sure
By anon
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 1:44pm
Are you seriously claiming that the $1.5M+ spent by outside groups for Walsh was only a reaction to the $500k spent by DFER? That's hilarious.
I'm sure BTU is psyched that they will not have to change anything with Walsh, but that's not what swung the election.
narrative complications
By John-W
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 1:45pm
It's notable that the East Boston situation sort of messes up the framing that's being thrown out there. With the 3rd highest turnout the n'hood went for Walsh, even though he was generally pro-casino keeping the union line (with the caveat of "I'll go with what the people of Eastie decide" late in the game). Looking at the map the "New Boston" areas of Eastie went for Connolly - they were also very active in the No vote effort for the casino. Sal LaMattina handily defeated the "New Boston/No Casino" candidate, even though he was staunchly pro-casino.
Which is all to say things are sometimes more complicated than glib internet posts, electoral experts and hack-journalists can deal with. Speaking of electoral experts, I had to scratch my head when Steve Koczela of MassInc Polling on WBUR tried to explain their failure to forecast the casino vote by saying that there hadn't been enough polling. I've been getting calls everyfuckingday for the past month from goddamned pollsters, MassINC, Suffolk, UNH and multiple push-polls from Suffolk Downs' contractors. sheesh.
And I want to tattoo Larry DiCara's quote on his forehead: "There hasn't been corruption in Boston for 20 years." ...snicker....
Totally agree
By Michael Kerpan
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 1:53pm
Lots of intersecting and cross-cutting things were going on in this election. It will take lots of post-mortem sorting out -- but I'm not sure any news organization will bother to undertake the amount of effort involved -- and even then there may be unquantifiable intangibles that don't quite add up.
If Caesar's had not been bumped right before the election, who knows what the impact would have been -- on both the Casino vote and the mayoral race.
My first reaction to the maps
By chaosjake
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 4:03pm
My first reaction to the maps was also that Eastie blew a hole in the tidy have/have-not old-Boston/new-Boston narrative.
Precinct 11 for example
By Mateo
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 4:25pm
I think most would characterize Precinct 11 (the poet named streets) as "Old Boston" and they did back Walsh over Connolly 400-345. However, they also gave one of the biggest NO votes at 458-289 and along with Precinct 12 led East Boston in turnout (% in the high 50s). Precinct 12, which is also "Old Boston" voted NO 428-320, but also went for Walsh. There was a lot of quiet opposition among long time residents who remember past injustices and don't want to bear more burdens for the state. These two precincts also both rely on Bennington Street to access their neighborhood, which at one point is the only alternative to 1A to travel along East Boston. They would've been trapped by casino traffic. On the other hand Precinct 1 (Jeffries Point) lived up to its reputation as "New Boston" voting for Connolly and opposing the casino with a whopping 442-188 vote. I still can't believe that the NO vote won in every precinct but one, where it still got 44% of the vote.
Link to EB Casino Results
Precinct 15
By John-W
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 4:55pm
wait....who are the 7 people who live on the island that is Precinct 15??
Long Island Shelter
By Waquiot
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 5:36pm
It's the only part of Ward 1 that votes in Dorchester.
So...
By John-W
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 11:29pm
people who are living in the shelter (and registered to vote there) want a casino....to spend...all....their.....money....? FREE DRINKS!!
before you start ranting
By anon
Thu, 11/07/2013 - 10:45am
Sally, perhaps you should learn how to spell the name of the person you voted for...
Or maybe I should use some device without autocorrect
By Sally
Thu, 11/07/2013 - 11:48am
Apparently I know more Connelly's than Connolly's. But thanks for the anonymous nitpicking.
Washington Street PLUS
By Waquiot
Wed, 11/06/2013 - 5:38pm
Take Washington Street from the Dedham Line to Forest Hills, then follow the railroad tracks to Back Bay. That's the divide save a few precincts.
Best way to go- Bus 34 to Orange Line, but you can bike it, too. Just don't start at Back Bay if you're biking.
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